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2026 Masters Predictions and Picks: Who Will Win the Green Jacket?
The 2026 Masters begins Thursday, April 9. Defending champion Rory McIlroy returns having delivered one of Augusta's most dramatic victories in 2025. Scottie Scheffler arrives as the world's best player. The field is deep, the storylines are rich, and the green jacket will be awarded Sunday evening. Here are our picks for who wins.
The Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy
McIlroy's 2025 victory — won in a playoff over Justin Rose after one of the most chaotic final rounds in Masters history — changed everything about his Augusta relationship. He no longer arrives carrying the weight of the Grand Slam pursuit. He arrives as champion, with every slope and grain of Augusta's greens freshly in his muscle memory from just 12 months ago. Defending champions at Augusta have a mixed historical record — the course is hard enough that repeat victories are rare — but McIlroy's game profile suits Augusta consistently, not just once. His iron play, his driving, and his improved Bermuda putting give him the tools to compete for a second jacket. He's not the betting favorite but he's absolutely a genuine threat.
The Favorite: Scottie Scheffler
There's no honest conversation about 2026 Masters picks that doesn't treat Scheffler as the most likely winner. The world's top-ranked player and a two-time champion (2022, 2024), his game profile aligns with Augusta's demands more completely than any other player in the field. He doesn't make mistakes, his iron play is elite, and his mental steadiness under pressure is as good as anyone's. He finished fourth at the 2025 Masters, one of the few weeks McIlroy outplayed him when it mattered. Fade him at your own risk. The data, the form, and the Augusta record all point the same direction.
The 2023 Champion: Jon Rahm
Rahm won at Augusta in 2023 by four shots. He knows this course wins. His ball-striking profile — high trajectory, spin control, both-direction shot shaping — suits Augusta beautifully. The LIV preparation questions are legitimate but not disqualifying for a player who's won here by a dominant margin. Rahm is dangerous whenever Augusta's setup rewards the aggressive, high-trajectory game he brings.
The Redemption Pick: Bryson DeChambeau
DeChambeau entered the 2025 Masters final round just two shots behind McIlroy and had a chance to win before fading on Sunday afternoon. He knows what it takes to be in contention here and he'll be motivated by how close he came. His two US Open victories confirm his major championship ceiling. When his iron play matches his driving, he's a genuine Augusta threat.
The Emerging Threat: Ludvig Åberg
Åberg briefly shared the lead during the final round of the 2025 Masters before dropping four shots in his last two holes to finish seventh. He's young, he's improving, and Augusta suits his elite ball-striking game. A player who contends in the final round of The Masters has the game to win it. Åberg's game is only getting better.
The Value Pick: Collin Morikawa
Morikawa's legendary iron precision makes him a perennial Masters threat. He hits the ball to specific targets from specific distances with a consistency that few players match — exactly what Augusta rewards. His Masters record hasn't fully reflected his ability yet. When everything aligns in the same week, Morikawa at Augusta is capable of producing the kind of performance that earns green jackets.
The Dark Horse: Tommy Fleetwood
Fleetwood's Augusta record shows a player who performs at the course without yet having won. His iron play precision translates well to Augusta's approach shot demands. If one of the favorites struggles and a player at longer odds takes advantage, Fleetwood is among the most credible alternatives in the field.
Final Pick
Scottie Scheffler wins the 2026 Masters. The combination of his world ranking, his Augusta record, and the structural advantage his game provides at this specific course makes him the most logical selection. McIlroy defending is the most compelling narrative alternative — and the emotional storyline that neutral golf fans might prefer. But Scheffler's consistency and precision at Augusta is the most reliable predictor available.
Whatever the outcome, the 2026 Masters will feature a defending champion who won it in the most dramatic fashion imaginable, a world number one hunting his third jacket, and a field of genuine contenders all competing on the most beautiful and demanding stage in professional golf. That's always enough.
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