Photo by Freddie Collins on Unsplash New golfers often set themselves up for disappointment by expecting to score near par when they first take up the game. Managing expectations correctly makes the beginning of your golf journey far more enjoyable. Here's what you should actually expect from your scores as a beginner — and what realistic progress looks like over time. What Par Means (And Why You Shouldn't Target It Yet) Par is the number of strokes an expert golfer is expected to take on a given hole, accounting for two putts once on the green. A par-4 expects the expert to reach the green in two shots and take two putts. A par-3 expects one shot to the green plus two putts. Par for an 18-hole course typically runs 70–72 total strokes. Shooting par requires a combination of consistent ball striking, accurate short game, and reliable putting that takes most golfers years to develop. As a beginner, par is not your target. Double bogey (2 over par per hole) is a healthy init...
Scottie Scheffler is the best golfer in the world. That's not a controversial statement — it's a reflection of what his statistics, his results, and his performance at the biggest events have shown for two consecutive years. He won the Masters in 2022 and again in 2024. If he wins in 2026, he joins an extraordinarily short list of multiple Masters champions and establishes himself as the defining player of his generation.
The Case for Scheffler
Everything about Scheffler's game is built for Augusta National. His ball-striking statistics — consistently among the best on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach to Green — align perfectly with what Augusta demands. The Masters rewards iron precision above almost every other skill, and Scheffler hits more greens in regulation, from better positions, than virtually any player in the world.
His putting on Bermuda grass has improved significantly since his first Masters win. His mental framework — relentlessly process-focused, rarely rattled by leaderboard pressure — is exactly what Sunday at Augusta demands when every contender can feel the weight of the moment.
He also doesn't make mistakes. Augusta punishes error more than most courses, and Scheffler's double-bogey rate is one of the lowest on Tour. In a tournament where disasters at Amen Corner separate winners from also-rans, a player who simply doesn't produce disasters has a structural advantage.
The Historical Context
Three Masters victories would place Scheffler alongside Jack Nicklaus (6), Arnold Palmer (4), Tiger Woods (5), Gary Player (3), Sam Snead (3), and Jimmy Demaret (3) as a three-time champion. Only those five players in the history of the tournament have won it three or more times. For Scheffler to join that group at his age — still in his late 20s — would be historically extraordinary.
The precedent for back-to-back defense is mixed. Nick Faldo won in 1989 and 1990. Tiger Woods won in 2001 and 2002. Jack Nicklaus won in 1965 and 1966. Scheffler won in 2022, skipped 2023 (won by Rahm), and won again in 2024. Whether he can add 2026 to that collection would write another chapter in what's already an exceptional Augusta record.
What Could Stop Him
The Masters is golf, and golf is unpredictable. Scheffler's putting, while improved, remains the most variable part of his game — Augusta's greens can expose putting frailties in ways that other courses don't. On a week where the greens are running 13+ on the stimpmeter and the Sunday pin positions are on the most severe slopes, even Scheffler's composure gets tested.
The field also gets better every year. Rory McIlroy's driving and iron combination is arguably the most complete package in the game after Scheffler. Jon Rahm knows how to win at Augusta. Bryson DeChambeau's ability to overpower courses creates scoring opportunities that conventional approaches miss. Any of these players can beat Scheffler in a given week.
Scheffler's Augusta Numbers
In major championship golf, Augusta-specific statistics matter more than overall season averages. Scheffler's record at Augusta before his wins showed a player who consistently placed himself in contention — top 20 finishes, solid ball-striking statistics at the course, and improving putting performance on Bermuda. Since his first win, he's treated Augusta as a home venue — a course where he understands every slope and where his preparation is more thorough than anywhere else he plays.
The Verdict
Scottie Scheffler enters the 2026 Masters as the clear favorite — as he has been at virtually every major he's entered for two years. He's the right player on the right course, with the right game for what Augusta National demands. Whether the golf gods cooperate is another matter entirely. But if you're building a case for who will be putting on the green jacket Sunday evening, Scheffler's name belongs at the top of every list.
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