Jon Rahm at The Masters 2026: What to Expect from the 2023 Champion

Photo by Donald Teel on Unsplash

Jon Rahm won the 2023 Masters by four shots and looked every bit like a player who had found his natural home course. Since then he's joined LIV Golf, causing considerable controversy and complicating his relationship with the PGA Tour establishment. But Augusta National's doors remain open to its champions, and Rahm returns in 2026 as one of the most dangerous players in the field. Here's what to expect.

What Made Rahm's 2023 Victory Special

Rahm's 2023 Masters win was the kind of performance that reveals a player's true ceiling. He didn't win by grinding out pars — he attacked Augusta National with the aggressive, high-trajectory iron play that his game is built around. His ability to shape shots both directions, control spin into Augusta's firm greens, and putt the Bermuda surfaces with authority combined in a display of complete golf that the best Augusta performances always feature. The four-shot margin of victory didn't fully capture how dominant he was through the final 36 holes.

The LIV Factor

Rahm's move to LIV Golf after his Masters victory remains one of the most consequential player decisions of the sport's recent restructuring. The reported guarantee exceeded $300 million — a figure that made the decision financially straightforward regardless of its sporting implications. His participation in The Masters as a LIV player reflects Augusta National's position that their exemption criteria are based on golf merit rather than Tour affiliation — a stance that has generated ongoing debate about the future of professional golf's structure.

On the course, the LIV schedule's shorter format (54 holes, no cut) has raised questions about whether extended competitive sharpness — the ability to sustain peak performance over 72 holes against a world-class field — is maintained. These questions are reasonable but ultimately speculative. Rahm's talent is too significant to be significantly eroded by format differences.

Rahm's Augusta-Specific Skills

Several specific elements of Rahm's game profile well for Augusta. His iron play — particularly his ability to control trajectory and flight angle — is exactly what Augusta's firm, contoured greens require. His driving accuracy, while not his most elite statistical category, is sufficient to keep him in the fairway often enough to attack pins. His putting on Bermuda grass showed significant improvement through the 2022-2023 stretch leading to his victory.

Rahm also brings emotional fuel to Augusta that not every player carries. As a Spanish player in the tradition of Seve Ballesteros and Jose Maria Olazabal — both Masters champions — he carries the weight of Iberian golf excellence into Augusta's cathedral. He's spoken about what winning at Augusta means within that context.

The Competition He Faces

In 2023, Rahm was the clear best player in the world during that stretch — his world ranking, his statistics, and his results all pointed to a peak-form performance. In 2026 he faces Scheffler at his home course, McIlroy desperate for a Grand Slam, and a deep field of players all motivated by the most famous prize in golf. The question isn't whether Rahm is good enough to win — he clearly is. The question is whether his preparation, his competitive sharpness, and his form entering tournament week match what he produced in 2023.

What to Watch

Watch Rahm's iron play from 150-200 yards. If his approach statistics in practice rounds and the early tournament rounds show the same precision as 2023, he's a genuine threat through the weekend. Watch also his putting on the practice greens — Augusta's Bermuda requires a specific feel that players rebuild each year during practice round preparation. A Rahm who's comfortable over short putts on Bermuda is a different competitive proposition than one who's fighting the putter.

The Prediction

Rahm is a top-5 threat at the 2026 Masters. His Augusta record, his game profile, and his competitive character all support the case for contention. Whether the LIV competitive environment has maintained the edge required to beat the best players in the world over 72 holes on the most demanding stage in golf remains the central question. The answer will emerge over four days in April.